Trump threatened Brazil with 50% tariffs, demanding Lula stop the prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro — his political ally. He called the trial a “witch hunt.” Lula didn’t flinch.
“If Trump slaps 50% tariffs on us, we’ll do the same,” he said. “Brazil negotiates as a sovereign nation, not someone’s puppet.”
Why Trump’s Threat Could Blow Up in His Face
- The U.S. has more to lose. It made $6.8 billion more exporting to Brazil than importing last year.
- Brazil passed a law in April to match any U.S. tariffs — and it can freeze U.S. investments or cancel IP rights.
- Even Bolsonaro allies in Brazil are pushing back against Trump’s interference.
What’s Happening Now
- Brazil’s currency dropped 2%.
- Prices for U.S. staples like coffee and orange juice — both heavily imported from Brazil — are expected to rise.
- Brazil says 100,000 jobs could be lost. GDP might dip slightly.
Lula’s Move
- His government is prepping legal action against the U.S. and considering a WTO case.
- Lula is also pressuring U.S. companies like GM and John Deere to push back on Trump.
- He’s framing the whole fight as Brazil standing up to foreign pressure — and it’s winning him support at home.
Trump Might Blink
Sources say Trump could delay the tariffs by a week or carve out key products like juice and aircraft parts to avoid major backlash.
What This Is Really About
It’s not just trade. Trump’s trying to protect Bolsonaro, who’s on trial for allegedly trying to overturn Brazil’s election. It’s personal. And it’s dangerous — using trade threats to interfere in another country’s justice system sets a scary precedent.
What Comes Next
- August 1 is the deadline. If Trump follows through, Brazil hits back immediately.
- A $92 billion trade war is on the table.
- Long-term, this could push Brazil even closer to China and other BRICS partners.
Bottom Line
Lula isn’t budging. Trump tried to flex — and it might cost the U.S. more than it expected. The clock’s ticking.
